Maybe it sounds a little harsh, but a programmer who's been working professionally for five years has likely already revealed their potential. What you're going to get is roughly what you see. That doesn't mean that people can't get better after that, but it means that the trajectory by which they improve has already been plotted.
The above quote and its corresponding article from DHH, has instilled in me quite a reaction.
I'll start with the most obvious:
knowledge work is not a sport
It is especially not a US sport.
I make the above distinction since:
US sport associations have some convoluted ways you might get to play in one of their teams
He uses US sport examples in the article.
I want to get in the NBA
I will use the NBA as an example, since it is the US sport association I know best, but they all have a similar ‘story’.
If you want to have a career in the NBA, there is quite a straight path you must take*:
Be good in school, best of the best.
Get selected for college, be good, best of the best.
At some point during college declare yourself eligible for the draft (teams will pick as in the schoolyard, in turns**)
Get chosen by a team, the ‘better’ you are the ‘worst’ the team that picks you is.
Play about 15 years
Retire.
*: you could also play ‘overseas’, Europe or Asia prior to being drafted.
**: teams are assigned an order of picks and will each pick a couple young players.
Why the teams select players young.
There are a few incentives on ‘fighting’ for young players in structures such as the NBA.
First and foremost, that is when you are sure you can get access to talent you would not have access otherwise (and keep in mind that the young players have no say in the team they’ll play for)
You get talent at a huge discount. Contrary to what is stated in the article, you don't pay a premium for ‘potential’, you get a potential discount for skills.
A players physical attributes will decline with age, with peaks being reached around 28-29 years of age. That is about 6-7 years after most enter the league.
The differences
I would expect that if you are working in a knowledge field, you can see the differences with a sport league, but please allow me to state the obvious:
Your career will be longer
You will not have ‘only’ a ~15 year career, more typically, your career will last for 40 years, if you ‘loose’ 5 years, you have not ‘lost’ comparatively as big a proportion.
You skills don’t decline as sharply
You don’t depend on your physical attributes for knowledge work, and while cognitive ability might decline some with age. The decline is not as sharp as with physical attributes
You have more time for circumstances to change
While now might not be a good time for you to ‘grow’ or ‘learn’. Life does change, and circumstances do as well.
So, how potential?
Potential (understood as ‘growing speed’) is derived from curiosity and opportunity. So, if you want people to grow with you, try to hire curious people and give them opportunity to learn. At the end of the day, you will be paying people for their skills today, and contrary to what happens in sport, they are not tied to you so if your compensation stops being fair for their skill… Well, either you’ll renegotiate or they will leave.
